We all know that vaccines were touted to be extremely effective, and have lived up to those expectations in last ~10 months with are extremely effective.
The pace of vaccination in last ~6 months have been phenomenal, with about ~3.5 Billion people already vaccinated with at least one jab. However, it will be naïve to extrapolate this to assume that the world will be nearly fully vaccinated in next 6-8 months.
As expected, the vaccination drive faces exponential difficulties in reaching more and more people after addressing the most willing one. Below are examples from 3 developed countries (Source: Our World in Data)
Somehow even in developed countries with a high degree of awareness, education and ease of access, ~50% of eligible population is where the first resistance is met.
This is a point where the (eagerly) ‘waiting to get jabbeb’ part of population finishes.. what remains is ‘Not so Sure’ and ‘Vaccine Resistance’ groups. As you see, beyond this most countries are struggling to cover even ~5% additional population per month, and given that vaccines are showing signs of diminished effectiveness post 6 to 10 months of getting first set of shots, our ability to get out of this pandemic by full vaccinating the world seems questionable.