Data can be interpreted in many ways, and headlines are often misleading. Take a look at the Olympic medal tally, and you’ll see India languishing at a low 71st place.
At first glance, this looks disappointing. But what if I further told you that right after India’s independence, from the 1948 London Olympics to the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, the country consistently ranked in the top 30? Does this mean that India is performing worse now than in the 1950s?
Let’s dig deeper. The 1990s were arguably a tough period for India at the Olympics. In both the 1996 Atlanta and 2000 Sydney Games, India finished in 71st place as well. So, is the 2024 performance comparable to that of the late 1990s and early 2000s?
While these data points are factual, they can be misleading. The problem lies in how we interpret the rankings. The traditional Olympic medal ranking system prioritizes gold over silver and bronze, which can skew perceptions. A country with just one gold medal can rank higher than a country with several silver and bronze medals. But is this the best way to judge a country’s overall performance at the Olympics?
Many would argue that the total medal count is a far better indicator of a country’s sporting prowess. In the 1948-1964 era, India’s position in the top 30 was largely due to its dominance in men’s hockey, where a gold medal was almost a given. Beyond that, India had little presence in other sports, except for K.D. Jadhav’s bronze in wrestling in 1952.
The comparison to 1996 and 2000 is even more striking. In both years, India won just one bronze medal. Because all countries with a single bronze share the same ranking, the difference between one bronze and, say, one silver and five bronze medals (a total of six) is minimal. However, we know that this difference is quite significant—at least six times more.
So, if total medal count is a better metric, how is India doing at Paris 2024? Quite well, actually. With a current tally of six medals, this is our second-best performance ever, only behind the seven medals at Tokyo 2020 and tied with London 2012.
How has India’s total medal count evolved in recent Olympic editions?
This changes the narrative entirely, doesn’t it? When you compare 1996/2000 to recent editions, the country ranking may look similar, but the total medal count clearly shows that these periods are not comparable. The rankings miss the essence of the underlying improvements.
But is the total medal count sufficient? What about near misses? Suppose two countries win five medals each, but one of them also competed (but lost) in five hard-fought semifinals. The country that was consistently in more medal contention likely has a stronger sporting foundation, something not fully captured by just counting medals.
To better assess this, I have added another category to India’s more recent Olympic data since the 1984 Games. This includes events where India either finished fourth (like P.T. Usha’s heart-wrenching near miss in the 400m hurdles finals at the 1984 Olympics) or lost in a match where a win would have guaranteed at least a bronze (such as a boxing quarterfinal, where both losing semifinalists receive bronze, or a bronze medal match in most other sports).
Additionally, not all medals carry the same weight. A medal in a mega-event like soccer or hockey, with thousands of spectators, arguably has more significance than one in, say, sailing or shooting. Moreover, a diverse medal tally, with success across multiple sports, is a better indicator of a country’s overall sporting health.
With these factors in mind, let’s examine India’s Olympic performance since 1984:
Now we see a clearer pattern. India is increasingly becoming competitive in a broader range of sports, winning more medals, and creating more opportunities to win even more. Although Paris 2024 may have seen fewer medal conversions, the Indian contingent has shown that it belongs on the global stage.
Looking at the full picture, it’s evident that Paris 2024 marks India’s strongest showing in its Olympic history, laying a solid foundation for further progress in Los Angeles four years from now.
The chart also reveals some interesting insights: the absolute low point for India at the Olympics was in 1988, when no athlete even came close to winning a medal. The real shift in India’s fortunes began in 2008, roughly 15 years after the economic liberalization and coinciding with the year India joined the $1 trillion economy club.