At first glance, this looks disappointing. But what if I further told you that right after India’s independence, from the 1948 London Olympics to the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, the country consistently ranked in the top 30? Does this mean that India is performing worse now than in the 1950s?

Let’s dig deeper. The 1990s were arguably a tough period for India at the Olympics. In both the 1996 Atlanta and 2000 Sydney Games, India finished in 71st place as well. So, is the 2024 performance comparable to that of the late 1990s and early 2000s?

While these data points are factual, they can be misleading. The problem lies in how we interpret the rankings. The traditional Olympic medal ranking system prioritizes gold over silver and bronze, which can skew perceptions. A country with just one gold medal can rank higher than a country with several silver and bronze medals. But is this the best way to judge a country’s overall performance at the Olympics?

Many would argue that the total medal count is a far better indicator of a country’s sporting prowess. In the 1948-1964 era, India’s position in the top 30 was largely due to its dominance in men’s hockey, where a gold medal was almost a given. Beyond that, India had little presence in other sports, except for K.D. Jadhav’s bronze in wrestling in 1952.

The comparison to 1996 and 2000 is even more striking. In both years, India won just one bronze medal. Because all countries with a single bronze share the same ranking, the difference between one bronze and, say, one silver and five bronze medals (a total of six) is minimal. However, we know that this difference is quite significant—at least six times more.

So, if total medal count is a better metric, how is India doing at Paris 2024? Quite well, actually. With a current tally of six medals, this is our second-best performance ever, only behind the seven medals at Tokyo 2020 and tied with London 2012.

How has India’s total medal count evolved in recent Olympic editions?

This changes the narrative entirely, doesn’t it? When you compare 1996/2000 to recent editions, the country ranking may look similar, but the total medal count clearly shows that these periods are not comparable. The rankings miss the essence of the underlying improvements.

But is the total medal count sufficient? What about near misses? Suppose two countries win five medals each, but one of them also competed (but lost) in five hard-fought semifinals. The country that was consistently in more medal contention likely has a stronger sporting foundation, something not fully captured by just counting medals.

To better assess this, I have added another category to India’s more recent Olympic data since the 1984 Games. This includes events where India either finished fourth (like P.T. Usha’s heart-wrenching near miss in the 400m hurdles finals at the 1984 Olympics) or lost in a match where a win would have guaranteed at least a bronze (such as a boxing quarterfinal, where both losing semifinalists receive bronze, or a bronze medal match in most other sports).

Additionally, not all medals carry the same weight. A medal in a mega-event like soccer or hockey, with thousands of spectators, arguably has more significance than one in, say, sailing or shooting. Moreover, a diverse medal tally, with success across multiple sports, is a better indicator of a country’s overall sporting health.

With these factors in mind, let’s examine India’s Olympic performance since 1984:

Now we see a clearer pattern. India is increasingly becoming competitive in a broader range of sports, winning more medals, and creating more opportunities to win even more. Although Paris 2024 may have seen fewer medal conversions, the Indian contingent has shown that it belongs on the global stage.

Looking at the full picture, it’s evident that Paris 2024 marks India’s strongest showing in its Olympic history, laying a solid foundation for further progress in Los Angeles four years from now.

The chart also reveals some interesting insights: the absolute low point for India at the Olympics was in 1988, when no athlete even came close to winning a medal. The real shift in India’s fortunes began in 2008, roughly 15 years after the economic liberalization and coinciding with the year India joined the $1 trillion economy club.

The post India at the Olympics: Beyond the Medal Tally appeared first on Bhanu Sisodia.

Unlike earlier expectations, vaccines have not magically pushed out Covid and reverted the world to its pre-Mar’20 glory(little joys and luxuries of life that we didn’t value that much at that time.. like meeting near and dear ones, those hugs, office corner gossips, water parks, life without masks.. sigh!), but have they dramatically cut down on infections? or serious illness that needed hospitalizations? or mortality rates?

While the UK is in news on account of having the highest ever cases, but it also provides one of the strongest case (on a big data set of ~70 Million population) in favor of vaccine effectiveness

source/credits: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

The UK has gone very aggressive on the vaccination front with more than 2/3rd of the population being fully vaccinated (~45% of the target population has also taken a booster jab). Effects of this focus and early leads are clear in terms of lower hospitalizations and Covid related deaths.

Russia, on the other hand, seems to be in a mess. These charts are quite inexplicable:

source/credits: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

What’s happening in Russia?

The fully vaccinated population is at ~35%, and while it is about half the ratio vs UK, but is still significant.

And yet, New Covid cases are higher, absolute deaths/day are at the highest, and the most absurd data point is that even mortality rates(3.5%) are higher than pre-vaccination era(2.1%)??

Other than pointing to the fact that sub 50% vaccination levels hardly provide a deterrent for overall society, Only 2 explanations for this:

1. Russia’s early pandemic era data was of bad/questionable quality

2. Sputnik’s efficacy against newer mutations is questionable

What do you think?

Related read: https://bhanusisodia.com/2021/09/despite-a-bad-pandemic-surge-usa-covid-19-data-presents-overwhelming-evidence-in-support-of-vaccines/

The post UK vs Russia: Contrasting tales on vaccination Effectiveness appeared first on Bhanu Sisodia.

Three key games that were played in Squid Games have a clear relevance and learning for Supply Chains. Here is my take on them:

Red light, green light: Anticipate changes and react fast and don’t overdo it just because it is working fine.

Most key Supply Chain decisions will usually come down to one fundamental question: Cost vs Service.

Usually, all Supply Chains would work best when a sweet point on this equation is found and the whole supply chain is geared towards that. However, often, you will find supply chains going overboard with one objective (usually cost). When things are good (music is playing, or say Green Light), things look good. Supply Chain leaders are so pleased with themselves as they could cut costs, reduce redundancy (that looked so .. well.. redundant) and still the supply chain seemingly looks to be doing fine.

Going back to the game analogy, this is when the player is walking towards the finishing line in a carefree manner. This player is pleased with his progress and amused by the fact that other players are taking it so slow.

However, when the music is about to stop (Red Light), very few Supply Chains can re-calibrate. Best example for us is Covid-19 and how it exposed many (proudly)efficient Supply Chains. Supply Chains that went overboard with outsourcing, cost cutting, supplier consolidation, logistics footprint consolidation etc.. all that looked so good on paper till 2019, but then.. one jolt and the value of having a risk hedged supply chain became so obvious. Just like the creepy doll in the game, real world is ruthless with Supply Chains that are caught off guard (too efficient to handle a bit of variability, or too risk hedged to be cost competitive in the usual years).

Honeycomb: Patience is a virtue; else things break down.

Supply Chains are complex systems, and mistakes are costly.

Supply Chains are super complex, you have a sales/distribution network, then one step back, your suppliers also have a similar network, then their supplier, and the list goes on. Any one leg breaking down could seriously impact the whole supply chain.

Hence any changes (separating your shapes from the cookie) have to be dealt in a very delicate manner and after giving it a thorough thought.

Dealing with such complex systems needs system thinking rather than linear thinking. For example, imagine you wanted to reduce costs, one option was to cut usage of Full Truck Loads (FTL) on routes where volume is low and truck fill rates is a challenge. Maybe on paper, using courier service made more sense(say 20% cheaper). So, you change your FTL to courier. But then few weeks later you realize that delays, customer complaints, damages(breakages) & shortages have skyrocketed on such routes. Also, your relation with your FTL partners took a hit and they diverted their best personnel & assets to other account. What went wrong here? Hasty decision without thinking through full system impact.

Or say a hasty move that broke your cookie : )

Tug of War: Coordination is key!

Supply Chains should perhaps be called Supply Maps, as several interconnected processes take place at the same time in the overall system. For a successful supply chain, you need coordination among all key processes. Demand Planning, Supply(Capacity, MTP, STP), Logistics, Manufacturing all must work in tandem to overcome the challenges thrown by the mighty opponent: Uncertainty!

The whole team has to feel the same beat(tension on the rope). For Supply Chains, this beat is provided by the KPIs that are measured and more importantly talked about by the leadership. If all KPIs are compatible and talking to each other, it will mean that all sub-functions will also align their energies on solving the supply chain challenges.

Lastly, a well-coordinated supply chain even with sub optimal sub systems is better than a disjointed best in class implementation of sub-processes.

The post 3 Lessons from Squid Games for Supply Chains: appeared first on Bhanu Sisodia.

Math was rather simple, ~1 Bn eligible adults, 2X vaccination doses, and hence we needed 2 Bn vaccination doses to vaccinate all eligible adults in India.

I pointed out at that time as well that this is an over-reaction.

Why? Because it was not a valid assumption that all eligible adults in India will be reached out or will even be willing to go opt for the vaccinations.  Just like all other nations we were supposed to slow down as we get over administering vaccinations to a section of public that is willing/eager to get vaccinated.

If we look the whole vaccination drive, in India, we have now seen all 4 phases of the cycle:

1. Yes we also started …yawn!: In Q1 2021, Covid seemed like a thing of past, Vaccinations were neither open for general public, nor was there a serious interest/pressure for it.
2. Hey! Where are the Vaccines? When Covid second wave engulfed everyone, within a short span of 4 weeks (reported)cases skyrocketed to 4 times the peak of wave 1, casualties piled up and everyone wanted the vaccination shot to save his or her own life. System crashed, vaccination slots were grabbed up within seconds of opening, it was a nightmare with Supply and administering capacity being a tiny fraction of demand.
3. Supply increased and vaccinations accelerated: In this phase, pace of vaccination drive was still governed by available supply availability.
4. Demand and not supply dictating vaccination pace: How to reach more people? (falling new registrations)

I earlier thought that we will hit phase-4 a lot earlier, but the public, authorities and medical/para-medic Infra surprised everyone.

As explained in another post here, examples from around the world show that beyond a threshold, it becomes very difficult to enroll new people for vaccinations.

For countries like US and UK, they saw the first inflection point once they crossed ~50% of vaccine eligible population. For a country like India we had to overcome so many barriers to achieve high vaccination levels:

1. Education/awareness levels of a developing country
2. Poverty, will people be able to afford this? Will govt be able to afford free vaccinations for public?
3. Rumors! of all kinds and gullibility of general masses to fall for them
4. Geographical spread, far flung and relatively inaccessible areas.
5. Politics: Federal structure with vaccines and Covid in general becoming a political issue
6. A weak medical Infrastructure

And yet, looking back, despite all these challenges, India has done so well on the vaccination front.

For India, we passed that barrier of ~50% vaccination levels without any apparent slowdown in the vaccination pace or demand. We finally hit this inflection point(phase 4) at a time when we have vaccinated ~70% of eligible population in India.

This requires all round appreciation for collective efforts of general public, our pharma industry, medical and para medic staff, and government machinery.

Well done India!

The post Why India won’t hit 2Bn doses mark by December, but still has a lot to be proud off appeared first on Bhanu Sisodia.

The pace of vaccination in last ~6 months have been phenomenal, with about ~3.5 Billion people already vaccinated with at least one jab. However, it will be naïve to extrapolate this to assume that the world will be nearly fully vaccinated in next 6-8 months.

As expected, the vaccination drive faces exponential difficulties in reaching more and more people after addressing the most willing one. Below are examples from 3 developed countries (Source: Our World in Data)

Somehow even in developed countries with a high degree of awareness, education and ease of access, ~50% of eligible population is where the first resistance is met.

This is a point where the (eagerly) ‘waiting to get jabbeb’ part of population finishes.. what remains is ‘Not so Sure’ and ‘Vaccine Resistance’ groups. As you see, beyond this most countries are struggling to cover even ~5% additional population per month, and given that vaccines are showing signs of diminished effectiveness post 6 to 10 months of getting first set of shots, our ability to get out of this pandemic by full vaccinating the world seems questionable.

The post Is ‘Vaccinating the Whole World’ a distant dream now? appeared first on Bhanu Sisodia.

Looking closely at the data, USA numbers on face value raises some obvious questions.. with vaccination levels now touching ~55% mark(~65% for people with at least 1 dose), the number of cases and deaths defy basic logic. The peak of recent wave was ~70% as high as the last one seen in early this year, even mortality numbers show a grim picture with recent peak being ~60% of previous peak.

So, are the vaccines really 10X – 20X effective as being claimed in several earlier studies?

Luckily in recent weeks, lot of new data has been published to answer this question more effectively.

To understand why this recent wave is so devastating despite high vaccination levels in population, we need to first acknowledge the presence of more contagious and deadlier variants of the virus.

The Delta variant that contributed ~30% of all cases till mid-Jun now contributes almost all cases.

This new composition of virus variants dramatically affects our susceptibility to new infections and related complications. Hence comparison with previous peaks are to be taken in that light

CDC( Center for Disease Control and Prevention) has come up with a new study in September that further clarifies on significant(though reduced) effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines vs new infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

Below is a summary of published data:

This data overwhelmingly supports the case for vaccines and even with reduced effectiveness, vaccines reduces the risks by 10+ times when it comes to hospitalization or deaths.

Only caveat is that the study compares the data of Jun20th-Jul17th vs previous base.. while this recent data captures impact of newer variants, but as the cases in USA actually peaked in Aug/early Sept (hopefully), and the fact that Delta variant prevalence in Jun was still lower, maybe the real extent of the dip in vaccine effectiveness is not captured. We need to wait a bit longer to see a similar study with Aug-Sept data.

Or alternatively, we can already see data from other countries and look for patterns.

One interesting case is UK, where with marginally higher vaccination levels(65% fully vaccinated vs 56% in USA) the country was able to cut the mortality by 90%.

What explains this? Different Vaccines? Different mix of variants? Perhaps Yes for both.

But more importantly, above marginal difference in vaccination levels actually mean that there are ~30% less unvaccinated person for the virus to spread in the population.

So I guess pushing fully vaccinated levels beyond ~65% levels is the first step.

If you haven’t taken the jab, please do so.. with the overwhelming evidence pouring from across the world about Vaccine Effectiveness and Safety.

The post Despite a bad pandemic surge, USA Covid-19 data presents overwhelming evidence in support of Vaccines appeared first on Bhanu Sisodia.

Still there are a few realities that need to be told to the new breed of sales trainees. Knowing things in advance is always good so that Jor kaa jhatka dheere se lage. My friends, these are few of the things that you should be prepared for(Apart from traveling in a trolley with goats and life threats from competitors –

The post Promises & Perils of being a trainee in SALES – part 2 appeared first on Bhanu Sisodia.

So, my training is more or less over and here is my modest attempt to summarize what life is for a management sales trainee. The good things first:

1. Your business sustains livelihoods: From your salesmen to your distributors, from retailers to factory workers, from shareholders to your coworkers, you know that there are people who are dependent on this business. They are, in a small way dependent on you. Even as a trainee, the choices you make are important as they impact some of them directly (and in a big way). A smile from a retailer, a ‘thank you, Sir’ from a salesman, and you know that your job goes beyond the materialistic things of life.

2. Sales thrills: Sales gives you its own joyrides. You feel that you own that X% of this world. This ownership comes in many terms.. It could be the shelf-space, stocks, loyal consumers, sales-force spread across the territory. Then comes the thrill of numbers, if you are in to it, then the numbers belong to you. And when they belong to you, you chase them, you protect them, you plan for them and you try to achieve them and upon accomplishment you celebrate them..it’s fun.

3. Sales figures are not your headache, yet! Despite all the training and stints, the truth is that you are still in that so called ‘learning phase’. So people don’t really expect much fireworks from you. And even in the rarest of the cases that people do pull you over numbers, you just need a bit of thick skin to hear everything and conclude yourself by saying that you’ll try harder next time.

4. You hardly complain about quality if things are free. Your stay, food and numerous other expenses will be paid by the company.

5. Enjoy the ego trip: It’s a world of numerous hierarchy levels, and usually these levels are pretty hard to climb. In you mid 20s, you get a position which many others in the organization can only dream of occupying even in their late 30s. And it’s not the new age IT stuff, it’s a place where people really respect the chair that you hold.

6. Travel to new places: Explore and enjoy. You visit at least 15-20 new places in your training year. At least some of them are bound to be good tourist locations. You stay there at company’s expense and you wake up facing either the sea or a mountain range. How could you still complain about life?

In brief, take everything in your stride and move on. Dil rakhne ke liye to log ye bhi bolte hain ki Sales is what makes men out of boys : )

BTW, I can’t resist the urge to write the other side of this. So very soon, I’ll come up with a piece on perils of being a sales trainee : )

The post Promises & Perils of being a trainee in SALES part-1 appeared first on Bhanu Sisodia.

So finally Taco Bell (pronounced as Taako-Bell) has arrieved in india. I was taken by surprise when suddenly I came across several TacoBell banners in Bangalore last week, announcing the opening of their first outlet. Then somehow I stumbled upon the Mantri Square link, which is being touted as India’s biggest Mall. Incidentally the Taco Bell outlet is in this mall only and the two made an irresistible combination for a visit on the very next day.

What I saw there was kind of shocking.. I saw a queue in the mall ..leading upto the Taco Bell outlet.. yes my dear friend! you got me right, there was a queue even to get into the queue of the outlet!

Then given our notion of fast food, I didn’t mind it that much (I thought that OK lets be in the Queue..and it reinforced the feeling that Taco Bell is something big and giving it a miss will be nothing short of a sin).

For about 20 minutes I was in this queue outside the outlet, then another 10 minutes I was just near the entrance, and then only I got the first glimpse of the counter. Order taking process was slow..actually, it was damn slow. Then there was another bunch of customers waiting besides the counter. I realized later that they were waiting for their orders to get executed, which means that even the kitchen people were also agonizingly slow and were taking their own sweet time in preparing the orders. The sad part is that they were not preparing some Mughlai Paneer, they were preparing Tacos and Nachos, and anyway why is any preparation time required for these items?

God! I waited another 30 minutes to get to the counter(total time in the queue according to my watch was at least 1 hour, though I felt like I wasted the entire evening in that damn queue)

I ordered a Taco combo and some Nachos. Then I waited for my order to come. And finally..finally the moment arrived. When I had that food tray in my hand, I knew that this effort of mine was a clear demonstration of my grit, mental and physical strength and task orientation of the highest order, and ideally deserves to get a place on my one pager resume.

I won’t get into too many details over here.. but the food was OK.. the Taco was good, twisters were just a poor cousin of our Kurkure, the Burrito’s wrap was a bit too maida based and I don’t like Pepsi that much anyways. I came out exhausted, when exiting I saw that the queue was still building up at the first floor entrance

Pluses:

The novelty factor: How can you not even try this?

It’s American: and hence comes with a bit of coolness, after all we are a nation where you can proudly take your date to the McD for the fine dining American experience.

Free Pepsi: yeah mostly. I mean actually it’s free fill.. So you buy once and re-fill it as many times as you want to. Right now it’s so crowded that forget the free-fill, I won’t dare to go near that machine even if I am paid 100 bucks. I know that few daredevils might still relish this concept of free-fills, but hey! do they really care? Its fountain Pepsi.. carbonated water minus even the packaging costs.

The Price Factor: At the starting point of 18 Rs a Taco, they are quite cheap. In fact the whole menu is priced on reasonably appealing points. I read it somewhere that they want to occupy the sweet price point where they are cheaper than any other fast food chain and still a notch higher than the street food. Should particularly appeal to the college going junta.

Minuses:

Crowd: I mean “CROWD” in its proper English meaning . Unless you really love being in a crowd, you’ll feel uneasy over there.

Time: Seriously guys, you invest this much time in a temple queue and you’ll get Niravana J

Mismanagement: Ohh where do I start. Just to name a few issues, Why-

– Can’t they have a pre-order taken?(just like McD does during busy hours) so people already have an understanding of what they’ll buy when they reach the counter

– Can’t they deliver the order faste?

– Is there a slightly jammed and handle-less door to the wash basin area and why is it so close to the counter? Imagine that you somehow get inside, and then you realize that you’ll have to push it(jammed) and there are so many people standing in front of it on the other side. Though I didn’t see anyone getting hurt this way, but I am sure this is a real possibility.

Can’t they at least show IPL on those LCDs? so that people can utilize some of the 1 hour plus time that they are gonna spend in the queue anyways.

Now my last complaint is that we get another exclusive Pepsi-contracted (this one also coming from the Pepsi spin off YUM brands stable), and that too at a time when they are running an extremely annoying “Youngistan kaa WoW” campaign. (If anyone, including the agency guys who coined it or the Pepsi guys who paid for it, got any understanding of what the hell this Youngistan kaa Wow means, please please please enlighten me)

Fun Fact: Incidentally Taco Bell has struggled to make a mark in the Mexico.. they were laughed out of the country in early 90s as Mexican people found the food to be a mockery of their beloved Mexican food. The company has recently re-entered the Mexican market and is now projecting its product as a fast food from America

The post Taco Bell: Wait outside the store before you think outside the bun! appeared first on Bhanu Sisodia.

Recently, I had to go through the arduous yet entirely worthless process of interacting with the customer care center of a reputed telecom service provider company. I took a new connection and within 3 days they withdrew the connectivity citing improper documentation issue. The irony was that I took the connection from their authorized dealer where their representative took care of all the documentation part. When I called them up, the agent wanted me to visit the same dealer again and resubmit the same papers, while I believed that it was unfair on their part to ask this.

I am not arguing about who was right or wrong there, my point is quite different. During my several calls in this regard, one thing was obvious- the call center agent was in no position to help me in anyway. Though he could understand my point but could do nothing about it(even resuming my connectivity for 1 day while I resubmit the documents). Now how many times do we see such inefficiencies in the system? so often we come across processes or the IT system making the organization extremely rigid.

It is a fact that your system may render you inflexible and may cause lost opportunities, but that’s a huge area in itself. Even if we leave the money calculations aside there are still lots of soft aspects of this issue.

Just think about the work life of a security guard, or a call center employee who has a written script that he/she has to repeat again and again day after day, or for that matter a salesman at the retail store.. the list is just endless. We say that a company’s policy and systems are in place if its workers are more and more a replica of each other, If all of them behave like machines, very professional on the face of it but hardly human when seen in perspective.

The company becomes stable but in its quest of stability it strangles its employees and their individuality, the worst hits are the employees at the lower levels. They have a script for everything, how to great the customer, how to handle him, what to say while taking the credit card and so on. The processes and their manuals go from strength to strength but do they really serve the purpose with which they were instituted?

We always like when we are treated by real human beings, people who connects with us, who understands us. Suppose I have already done all the research. Now I am in a mood to book a particular model of LCD TV in 10 minutes as I have to I go to my office, I don’t want to hear to those annoying cross/up selling pitches from the salesman, and if I am in a mood of just checking the price I don’t want him to come to me and repeat those mugged up lines again and again.

Moreover it felt great (alas! It’s past) when your fruits weighed slightly more than 2 Kgs and the shopkeeper told you that it’s OK. When the customer care representative assures you that he will try his level best to do something in your favor and calls back after half an hour to tell you that it’s done.

So, there are possibilities when people don’t want all those standardizations (of course we want them in place in life safety issues like aviation, security checking etc)

The point is to have some faith in your employees, though the destination and the suggested path is to be shown, but please! Don’t decide where exactly they need to land their next foot. Give them a breathing space. They are the ones who will be interacting with your customers and they need to believe that it is their job, they need to enjoy it. They need to believe that they are creating some value for the customers.

Let your waiter serve a new dish to some of your regular guests on the pretext that they pay for it only if they like it.(fix some amount per day that he should not overshoot), let your customer care representative tell your customers “Sir I am activating it right now, but you please submit your bill by tonight” Give them some powers so that they can really help, guide, care for and sometimes even pleasantly surprise your customers. You are not empowering them for just making their job exciting but actually you are helping your customers by making them interact with real people and not with dejected human machines.

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